After first-stage analysis of the October 2023 Western U.S. event, roughly 60 percent of reported phenomena are plausibly attributable to military aircraft activity, while about 40 percent lack a reasonable explanation.
Claimed by
AARO director Dr. Jon Kosloski, report dated June 5, 2026, published in PURSUE Release 03.
Status note
This is an official analytic finding published in the release itself. The underlying sensor and flight-log data behind the percentages has not been publicly released for independent re-analysis.
What would settle it
Release of the correlation dataset (ADS-B, radar, flight logs, witness timing) so independent analysts can reproduce the 60/40 split.